Prevention and control of dengue and chikungunya in Colombia: A cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Chikungunya and dengue are emerging diseases that have caused large outbreaks in various regions of the world. Both are both spread by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitos. We developed a dynamic transmission model of chikungunya and dengue, calibrated to data from Colombia (June 2014 -December 2017). METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We evaluated the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of residual insecticide treatment, long-lasting insecticide-treated nets, routine dengue vaccination for children aged 9, catchup vaccination for individuals aged 10-19 or 10-29, and portfolios of these interventions. Model calibration resulted in 300 realistic transmission parameters sets that produced close matches to disease-specific incidence and deaths. Insecticide was the preferred intervention and was cost-effective. Insecticide averted an estimated 95 chikungunya cases and 114 dengue cases per 100,000 people, 61 deaths, and 4,523 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). In sensitivity analysis, strategies that included dengue vaccination were cost-effective only when the vaccine cost was 14% of the current price. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Insecticide to prevent chikungunya and dengue in Colombia could generate significant health benefits and be cost-effective. Because of limits on diagnostic accuracy and vaccine efficacy, the cost of dengue testing and vaccination must decrease dramatically for such vaccination to be cost-effective in Colombia. The vectors for chikungunya and dengue have recently spread to new regions, highlighting the importance of understanding the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of policies aimed at preventing these diseases.

Land use and land cover change and its impacts on dengue dynamics in China: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is a prioritized public health concern in China. Because of the larger scale, more frequent and wider spatial distribution, the challenge for dengue prevention and control has increased in recent years. While land use and land cover (LULC) change was suggested to be associated with dengue, relevant research has been quite limited. The "Open Door" policy introduced in 1978 led to significant LULC change in China. This systematic review is the first to review the studies on the impacts of LULC change on dengue dynamics in China. This review aims at identifying the research evidence, research gaps and provide insights for future research. METHODS: A systematic literature review was conducted following the PRISMA protocol. The combinations of search terms on LULC, dengue and its vectors were searched in the databases PubMed, Web of Science, and Baidu Scholar. Research conducted on China published from 1978 to December 2019 and written in English or Chinese was selected for further screening. References listed in articles meeting the inclusion criteria were also reviewed and included if again inclusion criteria were met to minimize the probability of missing relevant research. RESULTS: 28 studies published between 1978 and 2017 were included for the full review. Guangdong Province and southern Taiwan were the major regional foci in the literature. The majority of the reviewed studies observed associations between LULC change factors and dengue incidence and distribution. Conflictive evidence was shown in the studies about the impacts of green space and blue space on dengue in China. Transportation infrastructure and urbanization were repeatedly suggested to be positively associated with dengue incidence and spread. The majority of the studies reviewed considered meteorological and sociodemographic factors when they analyzed the effects of LULC change on dengue. Primary and secondary remote sensing (RS) data were the primary source for LULC variables. In 21 of 28 studies, a geographic information system (GIS) was used to process data of environmental variables and dengue cases and to perform spatial analysis of dengue. CONCLUSIONS: The effects of LULC change on the dynamics of dengue in China varied in different periods and regions. The application of RS and GIS enriches the means and dimensions to explore the relations between LULC change and dengue. Further comprehensive regional research is necessary to assess the influence of LULC change on local dengue transmission to provide practical advice for dengue prevention and control.

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact analyses of dengue vaccination in Indonesia.

Despite the fact that the incidence and mortality rates due to dengue virus (DENV) infection in Indonesia are relatively high, dengue vaccination has not yet been introduced. This study aimed to analyse the cost-effectiveness and the budget impact of dengue vaccination in Indonesia by taking the potential of pre-vaccination screening into account. An age-structured decision tree model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness value by applying a single cohort of 4,710,100 children that was followed-up in a 10-year time horizon within a 1-year analytical cycle. The budget impact was analysed in a 5-year period (2020-2024) by considering provinces' readiness to introduce dengue vaccine and their incidence rate of DENV infection in the last 10 years. Vaccination that was coupled with pre-vaccination screening would reduce dengue fever (DF), dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) and dengue shock syndrome (DSS) by 188,142, 148,089 and 426 cases, respectively. It would save treatment cost at $23,433,695 and $14,091,642 from the healthcare and payer perspective, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) would be $5,733 and $5,791 per quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY) gained from both perspectives. The most influential parameters affecting the ICERs were probability of DENV infection, vaccine efficacy, under-reporting factor, vaccine price, case fatality rate and screening cost. It can be concluded that dengue vaccination and pre-vaccination screening would be cost-effective to be implemented in Indonesia. Nevertheless, it seems unaffordable to be implemented since the total required cost for the nationwide vaccination would be 94.44% of routine immunization budget.

Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis.

Dengue is steadily increasing worldwide and expanding into higher latitudes. Current non-endemic areas are prone to become endemic soon. To improve understanding of dengue transmission in these settings, we assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of the hitherto largest outbreak in the non-endemic metropolis of Buenos Aires, Argentina, based on detailed information on the 5,104 georeferenced cases registered during summer-autumn of 2016. The highly seasonal dengue transmission in Buenos Aires was modulated by temperature and triggered by imported cases coming from regions with ongoing outbreaks. However, local transmission was made possible and consolidated heterogeneously in the city due to housing and socioeconomic characteristics of the population, with 32.8% of autochthonous cases occurring in slums, which held only 6.4% of the city population. A hierarchical spatiotemporal model accounting for imperfect detection of cases showed that, outside slums, less-affluent neighborhoods of houses (vs. apartments) favored transmission. Global and local spatiotemporal point-pattern analyses demonstrated that most transmission occurred at or close to home. Additionally, based on these results, a point-pattern analysis was assessed for early identification of transmission foci during the outbreak while accounting for population spatial distribution. Altogether, our results reveal how social, physical, and biological processes shape dengue transmission in Buenos Aires and, likely, other non-endemic cities, and suggest multiple opportunities for control interventions.

Household and Hospitalization Costs of Pediatric Dengue Illness in Colombo, Sri Lanka.

Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral infection that affects millions around the world, poses a substantial economic burden in endemic countries. We conducted a prospective costing study in hospitalized pediatric dengue patients at the Lady Ridgeway Hospital for Children (LRHC), a public pediatric hospital in Colombo district, Sri Lanka, to assess household out-of-pocket and hospitalization costs of dengue in pediatric patients during peak dengue transmission season. Between August and October 2013, we recruited 216 hospitalized patients (aged 0-3 years, 27%; 4-7 years, 29%; 8-12 years, 42%) who were clinically or laboratory diagnosed with dengue. Using 2013 US dollars, household out-of-pocket spending, on average, was US$59 (SD 49) per episode and increased with disease severity (DF, US$52; DHF/DSS, US$78). Pediatric dengue patients received free-of-charge medical care during hospitalization at LRHC, and this places a high financial burden on hospitals. The direct medical cost of hospitalization was US$68 (SD 31.4) for DF episode, and US$122.7 (SD 65.2) for DHF/DSS episode. Yet a hospitalized dengue illness episode still accounted for 20% to 35% of household monthly income due to direct and indirect costs. Additionally, a majority of caregivers (70%) sought outpatient care before hospitalization, most of whom (81%) visited private health facilities. Our findings indicate that hospitalized pediatric dengue illness poses a nontrivial cost burden to households and healthcare systems, emphasizing the importance of preventing and controlling the transmission of dengue in endemic countries.

Climatic and socio-economic factors supporting the co-circulation of dengue, Zika and chikungunya in three different ecosystems in Colombia.

Dengue, Zika and chikungunya are diseases of global health significance caused by arboviruses and transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti, which is of worldwide circulation. The arrival of the Zika and chikungunya viruses to South America increased the complexity of transmission and morbidity caused by these viruses co-circulating in the same vector mosquito species. Here we present an integrated analysis of the reported arbovirus cases between 2007 and 2017 and local climate and socio-economic profiles of three distinct Colombian municipalities (Bello, Cúcuta and Moniquirá). These locations were confirmed as three different ecosystems given their contrasted geographic, climatic and socio-economic profiles. Correlational analyses were conducted with both generalised linear models and generalised additive models for the geographical data. Average temperature, minimum temperature and wind speed were strongly correlated with disease incidence. The transmission of Zika during the 2016 epidemic appeared to decrease circulation of dengue in Cúcuta, an area of sustained high incidence of dengue. Socio-economic factors such as barriers to health and childhood services, inadequate sanitation and poor water supply suggested an unfavourable impact on the transmission of dengue, Zika and chikungunya in all three ecosystems. Socio-demographic influencers were also discussed including the influx of people to Cúcuta, fleeing political and economic instability from neighbouring Venezuela. Aedes aegypti is expanding its range and increasing the global threat of these diseases. It is therefore vital that we learn from the epidemiology of these arboviruses and translate it into an actionable local knowledge base. This is even more acute given the recent historical high of dengue cases in the Americas in 2019, preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, which is itself hampering mosquito control efforts.

The economic burden of dengue fever in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Rapid urbanization, global trade, and the exceptionally great numbers of worldwide visitors during Hajj and Umrah have all placed the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia at a significant risk of introducing several vector-borne tropical diseases, such as dengue fever virus (DENV) infection. In this study we estimated DENV infection cost of illness (COI) in Saudi Arabia in the period 2013-2017, by processing national data including all declared cases recorded in referral centers in the western region, being the endemic region of the country. Using a statistically validated predictive model that was built on a representative sample of 717 laboratory-confirmed cases of DENV infection, direct costs, due to care-related expenditures, were estimated by applying the predictive equation to national data. However, indirect costs, which are due to productivity loss, were estimated using the human capital model based on gross domestic product adjusted for invalidity duration. Further, under-reporting was adjusted by using an expansion factor EF = 3. We observed highest estimated costs in 2016 with over US$168.5 Million total costs, including direct (US$29.0 Million) and indirect (US$139.5 Million) costs, for a total 4415 confirmed cases. The total DENV COI for the five years was estimated as US$551.0 Million for a total 15,369 patients (59.7%) out of 25,745 declared cases, resulting in an average cost of US$11 947.6 by patient. Depending on the year, productivity years loss costs accounted for 63.3% to 83.8% of the estimated total costs. Dengue has a substantial local economic burden that costs US$110.2 Million per year, stressing the urgent need for an effective national prevention strategy to perform considerable cost-savings besides reducing morbidity.

The economic impact and cost-effectiveness of combined vector-control and dengue vaccination strategies in Thailand: results from a dynamic transmission model.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Dengue fever is a major public health problem in tropical/subtropical regions. Prior economic analyses have predominantly evaluated either vaccination or vector-control programmes in isolation and do not really consider the incremental benefits and cost-effectiveness of mixed strategies and combination control. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of single and combined approaches in Thailand. METHODS: The impacts of different control interventions were analysed using a previously published mathematical model of dengue epidemiology and control incorporating seasonality, age structure, consecutive infection, cross protection, immune enhancement and combined vector-host transmission. An economic model was applied to simulation results to estimate the cost-effectiveness of 4 interventions and their various combinations (6 strategies): i) routine vaccination of 1-year olds; ii) chemical vector control strategies targeting adult and larval stages separately; iii) environmental management/ public health education and awareness [EM/ PHEA]). Payer and societal perspectives were considered. The health burden of dengue fever was assessed using disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost. Costs and effects were assessed for 10 years. Costs were discounted at 3% annually and updated to 2013 United States Dollars. Incremental cost-effectiveness analysis was carried out after strategies were rank-ordered by cost, with results presented in a table of incremental analysis. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were undertaken; and the impact and cost-effectiveness of Wolbachia was evaluated in exploratory scenario analyses. RESULTS: From the payer and societal perspectives, 2 combination strategies were considered optimal, as all other control strategies were dominated. Vaccination plus adulticide plus EM/ PHEA was deemed cost-effective according to multiple cost-effectiveness criteria. From the societal perspective, incremental differences vs. adulticide and EM/ PHEA resulted in costs of $157.6 million and DALYs lost of 12,599, giving an expected ICER of $12,508 per DALY averted. Exploratory scenario analyses showed Wolbachia to be highly cost-effective ($343 per DALY averted) vs. other single control measures. CONCLUSIONS: Our model shows that individual interventions can be cost-effective, but that important epidemiological reductions and economic impacts are demonstrated when interventions are combined as part of an integrated approach to combating dengue fever. Exploratory scenario analyses demonstrated the potential epidemiological and cost-effective impact of Wolbachia when deployed at scale on a nationwide basis. Our findings were robust in the face of sensitivity analyses.

Cost of Dengue Illness in Indonesia across Hospital, Ambulatory, and not Medically Attended Settings.

Informed decisions concerning emerging technologies against dengue require knowledge about the disease's economic cost and each stakeholder's potential benefits from better control. To generate such data for Indonesia, we reviewed recent literature, analyzed expenditure and utilization data from two hospitals and two primary care facilities in Yogyakarta city, and interviewed 67 dengue patients from hospital, ambulatory, and not medically attended settings. We derived the cost of a dengue episode by outcome, setting, and the breakdown by payer. We then calculated aggregate Yogyakarta and national costs and 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UIs). Dengue costs per nonfatal case in hospital, ambulatory, not medically attended, and overall average settings were US$316.24 (95% UI: $242.30-$390.18), US$22.45 (95% UI: $14.12-$30.77), US$7.48 (95% UI: $2.36-$12.60), and US$50.41 (95% UI: $35.75-$65.07), respectively. Costs of nonfatal episodes were borne by the patient's household (37%), social contributors (relatives and friends, 20%), national health insurance (25%), and other sources (government, charity, and private insurance, 18%). After including fatal cases, the average cost per episode became $90.41 (95% UI: $72.79-$112.35). Indonesia had an estimated 7.535 (95% UI: 1.319-16.513) million dengue episodes in 2017, giving national aggregate costs of $681.26 (95% UI: $232.28-$2,371.56) million. Unlike most previous research that examined only the formal medical sector, this study included the estimated 63% of national dengue episodes that were not medically attended. Also, this study used actual costs, rather than charges, which generally understate dengue's economic burden in public facilities. Overall, this study found that Indonesia's aggregate cost of dengue was 73% higher than previously estimated, strengthening the need for effective control.

The cost-effectiveness of controlling dengue in Indonesia using wMel Wolbachia released at scale: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Release of virus-blocking Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes is an emerging disease control strategy that aims to control dengue and other arboviral infections. Early entomological data and modelling analyses have suggested promising outcomes, and wMel Wolbachia releases are now ongoing or planned in 12 countries. To help inform government, donor, or philanthropist decisions on scale-up beyond single city releases, we assessed this technology's cost-effectiveness under alternative programmatic options. METHODS: Using costing data from existing Wolbachia releases, previous dynamic model-based estimates of Wolbachia effectiveness, and a spatially explicit model of release and surveillance requirements, we predicted the costs and effectiveness of the ongoing programme in Yogyakarta City and three new hypothetical programmes in Yogyakarta Special Autonomous Region, Jakarta, and Bali. RESULTS: We predicted Wolbachia to be a highly cost-effective intervention when deployed in high-density urban areas with gross cost-effectiveness below $1500 per DALY averted. When offsets from the health system and societal perspective were included, such programmes even became cost saving over 10-year time horizons with favourable benefit-cost ratios of 1.35 to 3.40. Sequencing Wolbachia releases over 10 years could reduce programme costs by approximately 38% compared to simultaneous releases everywhere, but also delays the benefits. Even if unexpected challenges occurred during deployment, such as emergence of resistance in the medium-term or low effective coverage, Wolbachia would remain a cost-saving intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Wolbachia releases in high-density urban areas are expected to be highly cost-effective and could potentially be the first cost-saving intervention for dengue. Sites with strong public health infrastructure, fiscal capacity, and community support should be prioritised.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of VECTOS software for the control of diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti in two Colombian municipalities / [Análisis de costo-efectividad del uso del programa VECTOS en el control rutinario de enfermedades transmitidas por Aedes aegypti en dos municipios de Santander, Colombia].

Introduction: Diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti are considered a public health problem. VECTOS is a novel software for the integration of vector control strategies. Objective: To assess the cost-effectiveness of the use of VECTOS in the routine control programs of diseases transmitted by A. aegypti in the municipality of San Juan de Girón (Santander). Materials and methods: We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis using a decision analysis model from the perspective of the local health authorities. We considered the use of the VECTOS software in the routine control activities in the municipality of San Juan de Girón during 2016 as the treatment group while the routine control in the municipality of Floridablanca, where VECTOS is not implemented, was considered as the comparator. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) taking as effectiveness measure the disability-adjusted life years (DALY). Results: VECTOS was cost-effective at a rate of USD$ 660,4 savings per each DALY avoided compared to the routine control in Floridablanca. The probabilistic model showed that the system was cost-effective in 70% of the 10.000 iterations for a threshold between 1 to 3 GDP per capita. Conclusions: VECTOS software as implemented in the municipality of San Juan de Girón is highly cost-effective and could be used in other municipalities in the country where diseases transmitted by A. aegypti are endemic.

Introducción. Las enfermedades transmitidas por Aedes aegypti son un problema de salud pública. VECTOS es un programa novedoso de integración de estrategias de control de vectores. Objetivo. Evaluar el costo-efectividad del uso del VECTOS en los programas de control rutinario de enfermedades transmitidas por el vector Aedes aegypti en el municipio de San Juan de Girón (Santander). Materiales y métodos. Se evaluó el costo-efectividad del programa empleando un modelo de análisis de decisiones desde la perspectiva de las autoridades locales de salud. Se estudió la integración de las estrategias de control de vectores mediante el programa VECTOS utilizado en el municipio de San Juan de Girón durante el 2016, con el control rutinario llevado a cabo sin VECTOS en el municipio de Floridablanca. Se calculó la razón incremental del costo-efectividad (RICE), usando como medida de efectividad los años de vida ajustados por discapacidad (AVAD). Resultados. El uso del programa VECTOS fue rentable a una tasa de ahorro de USD$660,4 por cada AVAD evitado en comparación con el control de rutina en Floridablanca. El modelo probabilístico indicó que el sistema fue costo-efectivo en el 70 % de las 10.000 iteraciones para un umbral entre 1 y 3 PIB per cápita. Conclusiones. El programa VECTOS fue muy costo-efectivo en el municipio de San Juan de Girón. Su uso puede adoptarse en otros municipios del país donde las enfermedades transmitidas por A. aegypti son endémicas.

Productivity costs from a dengue episode in Asia: a systematic literature review.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection which has been estimated to cause a global economic burden of US$8.9 billion per year. 40% of this estimate was due to what are known as productivity costs (the costs associated with productivity loss from both paid and unpaid work that results from illness, treatment or premature death). Although productivity costs account for a significant proportion of the estimated economic burden of dengue, the methods used to calculate them are often very variable within health economic studies. The aim of this review was to systematically examine the current estimates of the productivity costs associated with dengue episodes in Asia and to increase awareness surrounding how productivity costs are estimated. METHOD: We searched PubMed and Web of Knowledge without date and language restrictions using terms related to dengue and cost and economics burden. The titles and abstracts of publications related to Asia were screened to identify relevant studies. The reported productivity losses and costs of non-fatal and fatal dengue episodes were then described and compared. Costs were adjusted for inflation to 2017 prices. RESULTS: We reviewed 33 relevant articles, of which 20 studies reported the productivity losses, and 31 studies reported productivity costs. The productivity costs varied between US$6.7-1445.9 and US$3.8-1332 for hospitalized and outpatient non-fatal episodes, respectively. The productivity cost associated with fatal dengue episodes varied between US$12,035-1,453,237. A large degree of this variation was due to the range of different countries being investigated and their corresponding economic status. However, estimates for a given country still showed notable variation. CONCLUSION: We found that the estimated productivity costs associated with dengue episodes in Asia are notable. However, owing to the significant variation in methodology and approaches applied, the reported productivity costs of dengue episodes were often not directly comparable across studies. More consistent and transparent methodology regarding the estimation of productivity costs would help the estimates of the economic burden of dengue be more accurate and comparable across studies.

Burden of communicable diseases and cost of illness: Asia pacific region.

BACKGROUND: Communicable diseases such as AIDS/HIV, dengue fever, and malaria have a great burden and subsequent economic loss in the Asian region. The purpose of this article is to review the widespread burden of communicable diseases and related health-care burden for the patient in Asia and the Pacific. AREAS COVERED: In Central Asia, the number of new AIDS cases increased by 29%. It is more endemic in the poor population with variations in the cost of illness. Dengue is prevalent in more than 100 countries, including the Asia-Pacific region. In Southeast Asia, the annual economic burden of dengue fever was between $ 610 and $ 1,384 million, with a per capita cost of $ 1.06 to $ 2.41. Globally, 2.9 billion people are at risk of developing malaria, 90% of whom are residents of the Asia and Pacific region. The annual per capita cost of malaria control ranged from $ 0.11 to $ 39.06 and for elimination from $ 0.18 to $ 27. EXPERT OPINION: The cost of AIDS, dengue, and malaria varies from country to country due to different health-care systems. The literature review has shown that the cost of dengue disease and malaria is poorly documented.

Patient and National Economic Burden of Dengue in Japan: Results from Japanese National Claims Database.

Dengue fever is a predominantly imported infectious disease in Japan. However, domestic dengue infections were found in 2014. The economic burden of dengue is informative to formulate a policy toward its control. We estimated patient and societal economic burden of dengue infections in Japan from the restricted societal perspective. The direct medical cost was estimated from the national claims database between 2011 and 2015, and the indirect cost was estimated by multiplying the treatment days with the average wage. The average number of dengue patients per year was 274. The economic burden per dengue patient was $1,364.90 (direct medical cost: $1,213.80 and indirect cost: $151.10); the average economic burden for dengue in Japan per year was $433,217 (direct cost: $329,557, indirect cost: $41,298, and nonmedical cost: $62,362). We estimated the economic burden of dengue per patient and year in Japan from 2011 to 2015. The economic burden per year was not huge. It may not be necessary to formulate the National Prevention Plan for dengue. However, domestic dengue outbreak might occur again in the future. Preventive action should be taken with considering cost-effectiveness or budget impact. The findings in this study may be of use for these health economic analyses for planning prevention strategy for not only dengue but also other mosquito-borne diseases.

Cost-effectiveness of community mobilization (Camino Verde) for dengue prevention in Nicaragua and Mexico: A cluster randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: We assessed the cost-effectiveness of Camino Verde, a community-based mobilization strategy to prevent and control dengue and other mosquito-borne diseases. A cluster-randomized controlled trial in Managua, Nicaragua, and in three coastal regions in Guerrero, Mexico (75 intervention and 75 control clusters), Camino Verde used non-governmental community health workers, called brigadistas, to support community mobilization. This donor-funded trial demonstrated reductions of 29.5% (95% confidence interval, CI: 3.8%-55.3%) on dengue infections and 24.7% (CI: 1.8%-51.2%) on self-reported cases. METHODS: We estimated program costs through a micro-costing approach and semi-structured questionnaires. We show results as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for costs per disability-adjusted life-year (DALYs) averted and conducted probabilistic sensitivity analyses. FINDINGS: The Camino Verde trial spent US$16.72 in Mexico and $7.47 in Nicaragua per person annually. We found an average of 910 (CI: 487-1 353) and 500 (CI: 250-760) dengue cases averted annually per million population in Mexico and Nicaragua, respectively, compared to control communities. The ICER in Mexico was US$29 618 (CI: 13 869-66 898) per DALY averted, or 3.0 times per capita GDP. For Nicaragua, the ICER was US$29 196 (CI: 14294-72181) per DALY averted, or 16.9 times per capita GDP. INTERPRETATION: Camino Verde, as implemented in the research context, was marginally cost-effective in Mexico, and not cost-effective in Nicaragua, from a healthcare sector perspective. Nicaragua's low per capita GDP and the use of grant-funded management personnel weakened the cost-effectiveness results. Achieving efficiencies by incorporating Camino Verde activities into existing public health programs would make Camino Verde cost-effective.

Measuring Consumer Willingness to Pay to Reduce Health Risks of Contracting Dengue Fever.

Located in the subtropics, Taiwan is one of the major epidemic areas for dengue fever, with severe epidemics occurring in recent years. Dengue fever has become a serious health threat to Taiwan's residents and a potentially serious economic cost to society. This study recruited 730 random participants and adopted the contingent valuation method to understand the factors influencing the populace's willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce the health risk of dengue fever. The results show that high-income women with children and people with higher preventive perceptions and behavior are more willing to invest in preventive measures against dengue fever. In the evaluation of WTP for preventive treatment for health risks, each person was willing to pay on average NT$751 annually to lower psychological health risks, NT$793 annually to lower the risk of illness, and NT$1086 annually to lower the risk of death.

The Impact of Dengue on Economic Growth: The Case of Southern Taiwan.

Dengue has long been a public health problem in tropical and subtropical countries. In 2015, a dengue outbreak occurred in Taiwan, where 43,784 cases were reported. This study aims to assess the impact of dengue on Southern Taiwan's economic growth according to the economic growth model-based regression approach recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). Herein, annual data from Southern Taiwan on the number of dengue cases, income growth, and demographics from 2010-2015 were analyzed. The percentage of reduction of the average income per capita in 2015 due to the dengue outbreak was estimated. Dengue was determined to have a negative linear economic impact on Southern Taiwan's economic growth. In particular, a reduction of 0.26% in the average income per capita was estimated in Southern Taiwan due to the 2015 outbreak. If the model is applied alongside other dengue outbreak forecast models, then the forecast for economic reduction due to a future dengue outbreak may also be estimated. Prevention and recovery policies may subsequently be decided upon based on not only the number of dengue cases but also the degree of economic burden resulting from an outbreak.

Using cluster analysis to reconstruct dengue exposure patterns from cross-sectional serological studies in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease caused by one of four serotypes (DENV1-4). Infection provides long-term homologous immunity against reinfection with the same serotype. Plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) is the gold standard to assess serotype-specific antibody levels. We analysed serotype-specific antibody levels obtained by PRNT in two serological surveys conducted in Singapore in 2009 and 2013 using cluster analysis, a machine learning technique that was used to identify the most common histories of DENV exposure. METHODS: We explored the use of five distinct clustering methods (i.e. agglomerative hierarchical, divisive hierarchical, K-means, K-medoids and model-based clustering) with varying number (from 4 to 10) of clusters for each method. Weighted rank aggregation, an evaluating technique for a set of internal validity metrics, was adopted to determine the optimal algorithm, comprising the optimal clustering method and the optimal number of clusters. RESULTS: The K-means algorithm with six clusters was selected as the algorithm with the highest weighted rank aggregation. The six clusters were characterised by (i) dominant DENV2 PRNT titres; (ii) co-dominant DENV1 and DENV2 titres with average DENV2 titre > average DENV1 titre; (iii) co-dominant DENV1 and DENV2 titres with average DENV1 titre > average DENV2 titre; (iv) low PRNT titres against DENV1-4; (v) intermediate PRNT titres against DENV1-4; and (vi) dominant DENV1-3 titres. Analyses of the relative size and age-stratification of the clusters by year of sample collection and the application of cluster analysis to the 2009 and 2013 datasets considered separately revealed the epidemic circulation of DENV2 and DENV3 between 2009 and 2013. CONCLUSION: Cluster analysis is an unsupervised machine learning technique that can be applied to analyse PRNT antibody titres (without pre-established cut-off thresholds to indicate protection) to explore common patterns of DENV infection and infer the likely history of dengue exposure in a population.

When and what to test for: A cost-effectiveness analysis of febrile illness test-and-treat strategies in the era of responsible antibiotic use.

BACKGROUND: Febrile illness caused by viral and bacterial diseases (e.g., dengue and leptospirosis) often have similar symptoms and are difficult to differentiate without diagnostic tests. If not treated appropriately, patients may experience serious complications. The question of what diagnostic tests to make available to providers in order to inform antibiotic therapy remains an open problem for health services facing limited resources. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We formulated the problem of minimizing the weighted average of antibiotic underuse and overuse to inform the optimal diagnostic test and antibiotic treatment options for given occurrence probabilities of several bacterial and viral infections. We modeled the weight of antibiotic overuse as a monetary penalty per unnecessarily administered course, which we varied in both the base case and sensitivity analysis. Detailed Markov cohort models of febrile illness progression were used to estimate the weight of antibiotic underuse. The model accounted for multiple infections simultaneously and incorporated test, treatment, and other direct and indirect costs, as well as the effect of delays in seeking care and test turnaround times. We used the Markov models to numerically estimate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), pre-penalty costs, and likelihood of antibiotics overuse per patient for fifteen different strategies in two example settings in Thailand, one with a higher probability of bacterial infections (Northern Thailand, Scenario A) and one with a higher probability of viral infections (Bangkok, Scenario B). We found that empirical antibiotic treatment to all patients always incurs the lowest pre-penalty cost (Scenario A: $47.5/patient, $100.6/patient, $149.5/patient for patients seeking care on day one, day four, and day ten respectively; Scenario B: $94.1/patient, $108.7/patient, $122.1/patient on day one, day four, and day ten respectively), and the lowest DALYs, (Scenario A: 0.2 DALYs/patient, 0.9 DALYs/patient, 1.7 DALYs/patient on day one, day four, and day ten, respectively; Scenario B: 0.5 DALYs/patient, 0.7 DALYs/patient, 0.9 DALYs/patient on day one, day four, and day ten, respectively). However, such strategy resulted in the highest proportion of antibiotic overuse per patient (Scenario A: 38.1%, 19.3%, 7.5% on day one, day four, and day ten, respectively; Scenario B: 82.9%, 42.1%, 16.3% on day one, day four, and day ten, respectively). Consequently, empirical antibiotic treatment became suboptimal with antibiotic overuse penalties above $12,800/course, $18,400/course, $23,900/course for patients presenting on day one, day four, and day ten in Scenario A and above $1,100/course, $1,500/course, $1,600/course for patients presenting on day one, day four, and day ten in Scenario B. CONCLUSIONS: Empirical antibiotic treatment to all patients provided the best outcomes if antibiotic overuse was not the primary concern or if presenting with viral disease (such as dengue) was unlikely. Empirical antibiotic treatment to severe patients only was in most cases not beneficial. Otherwise, strategies involving diagnostic tests became optimal. In particular, our results indicated that single test strategies (bacterial RDT or viral PCR) were optimal in regions with a greater probability of presenting with viral infection. PCR-led strategies (e.g., parallel bacterial PCR, or multiplex PCR) are robust under parameter uncertainty (e.g., with uncertain disease occurrence probabilities).

Impacto económico del dengue en pacientes y familiares / Economic impact of dengue on patients and families

Introducción: En Cuba no se han estudiado suficientemente los gastos de bolsillo y la pérdida de calidad de vida relacionada con la salud (de pacientes con dengue y sus familiares. Objetivo: Describir la afectación de la calidad de vida, los costos no médicos directos (gastos de bolsillo) e indirectos de pacientes hospitalizados con dengue y sus familiares. Método: Estudio de descripción de costos desde la perspectiva de pacientes y familiares, para los hospitalizados con dengue en el Clínico Quirúrgico Salvador Allende, en noviembre de 2013. En enero-febrero de 2014 se aplicó un cuestionario cerrado de 173 preguntas. Se calcularon la pérdida promedio de calidad de vida relacionada con la salud, los costos no médicos directos y los costos indirectos. Resultados: Durante el episodio de dengue el grupo de edad más afectado fue el de 30-44 años. Predominaron las mujeres (63,3 por ciento). La calidad de vida relacionada con la salud se afectó sensiblemente pasando como promedio de 86,9 el día antes de la enfermedad a 27,8 el día que las personas se sintieron más enfermas. En el momento de la entrevista, el 51 por ciento de los pacientes percibían que no se habían recuperado de la enfermedad. Los pacientes estuvieron hospitalizados como promedio 5 días. Los gastos de bolsillo de pacientes y familiares ascendieron a 61,24 CUC (IC95 por ciento 43,23-79,25 CUC), en que el 66,2 por ciento fue en alimentación y el 13,6 por ciento en transporte. Las pérdidas promedio de ingreso fueron de 25,30 CUC para los pacientes y 4,50 CUC para los familiares. Los costos totales promedio por paciente fueron de 89,25 CUC (IC95 por ciento 67,33-110,29 CUC). Conclusiones: Se evidenció la pérdida de calidad de vida como consecuencia del dengue. Los gastos de bolsillo fueron altos y representan tres veces el valor del salario medio de la Provincia La Habana(AU)

Introduction: Health-related loss of quality of life among dengue patients and their relatives, and unforeseen family expenses incurred for this reason, have not been sufficiently studied in Cuba. Objective: Describe the impact on quality of life, as well as the non-medical direct and indirect unforeseen expenses incurred by patients hospitalized with dengue and their relatives. Method: A cost analysis study was conducted based on data provided by patients hospitalized with dengue in Salvador Allende Clinical Surgical Hospital and their relatives in November 2013. A closed-ended questionnaire of 173 questions was applied in January-February 2014. Estimation was made of average health-related loss of quality of life, direct non-medical costs and indirect costs. Results: The 30-44 years age group was the most harshly affected during the episode. There was a predominance of the female sex (63.3 percent). Health-related quality of life decreased dramatically from an average 86.9 the day before the disease to 27.8 on the day when patients felt the worst. At the time of the interview, 51 percent of the patients perceived that they had not recovered from the disease. Mean hospital stay was 5 days. Unforeseen patient and family expenses rose to 61.24 CUC (CI 95 percent; 43.23-79.25 CUC), of which 66.2 percent was spent on food and 13.6 percent on transport. Average income loss was 25.30 CUC for patients and 4.50 CUC for relatives. Total average cost per patient was 89.25 CUC (CI 95 percent 67.33-110.29 CUC). Conclusions: Evidence was found of loss of quality of life as a result of dengue. Unforeseen expenses were high, representing three times the mean salary in the province of Havana(AU)